2023 🎯

   [1] “Negative emission technology is key to decarbonizing China's cement industry” with Ming Ren, Teng Ma, Xiaorui Liu, Chaoyi Guo, Silu Zhang, Ziqiao Zhou, Yanlei Zhu, Hancheng Dai and Chen Huang. Applied Energy (2023), 329, 120254.

Published Version Research Summary

Abstract ⚓

``The cement industry, which contributes to 8% of global CO2 emissions and a large quantity of air pollutants, plays a pivotal role in achieving the carbon neutrality target. However, the question of how to decarbonize the cement industry toward net-zero emissions and the corresponding environmental impact remains unclear. An integrated assessment framework combining a top-down computable general equilibrium model, a bottom-up technology selection model, and a life-cycle assessment was developed to explore the cement industry's carbon–neutral pathways and associated environmental impact. Results show that promoting energy-efficient technologies is crucial for reducing CO2 emissions in the short term, which can also significantly reduce air pollutant emissions. Improving energy efficiency contributes to reducing the emissions of SO2, NOx, and PM2.5, by 33%, 35%, and 8%, respectively, by 2030. In the long run, achieving net-zero carbon emissions requires implementation of bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) and demand-side mitigation measures. The share of kilns equipped with BECCS would increase to 68–75% by 2060. Corresponding unit abatement costs of CO2 are 484–676 CNY/tonne CO2. However, BECCS triggers adverse side effects by increasing water consumption and land cover by 7–11 km3 and 3–4 Mha, respectively, in 2060. Thus, China should take full advantage of energy-efficient technologies to co-control CO2 and air pollutant emissions while avoiding negative effects of BECCS.``

[2] “Global land-use and sustainability implications of enhanced bioenergy import of China” with Yazhen Wu, Andre Deppermann, Petr Havlík, Stefan Frank, Ming Ren, Hao Zhao, Lin Ma, Qi Chen, Hancheng Dai. Applied Energy (2023), 336, 120769.

Published Version Research Summary

Abstract ⚓

``Most ambitious climate change mitigation pathways indicate multifold bioenergy expansion to support the energy transition, which may trigger increased biomass imports from major bioenergy-consuming regions. However, the potential global land-use change and sustainability trade-offs alongside the bioenergy trade remain poorly understood. Here, we apply the Global Biosphere Management Model (GLOBIOM) to investigate and compare the effects of different increasing bioenergy import strategies in line with the 1.5℃-compatible bioenergy demand in China, which is projected to represent 30% of global bioenergy consumption by the middle of the century. The results show that sourcing additional bioenergy from different world regions could pose heterogeneous impacts on the local and global land systems, with implications on food security, greenhouse gas emissions, and water and fertilizer demand. In the worst cases under strict trade settings, relying on biomass import may induce up to 25% of unmanaged forests converted to managed ones in the supplying regions, while in an open trade environment, increasing bioenergy imports would drastically change the trade flows of staple agricultural or forestry products, which would further bring secondary land-use changes in other world regions. Nevertheless, an economically optimized biomass import portfolio for China has the potential to reduce global overall sustainability trade-offs with food security and emission abatement. However, these benefits vary with indicator and time and are conditional on stricter land-use regulations. Our findings thus shed new light on the design of bioenergy trade strategies and the associated land-use regulations in individual countries in the era of deep decarbonization.``

[3] “Enhanced food system efficiency is the key to China's 2060 carbon neutrality target” with Ming Ren, Chen Huang, Yazhen Wu, Andre Deppermann, Stefan Frank, Petr Havlík, Yuyao Zhu, Xiaotian Ma, Yong Liu, Hao Zhao, Jinfeng Chang, Lin Ma, Zhaohai Bai, Shasha Xu and Hancheng Dai. Nature Food (2023), 1-13.

Published Version Research Summary

Abstract ⚓

``Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage, among other negative-emission technologies, is required for China to achieve carbon neutrality—yet it may hinder land-based Sustainable Development Goals. Using modelling and scenario analysis, we investigate how to mitigate the potential adverse impacts on the food system of ambitious bioenergy deployment in China and its trading partners. We find that producing bioenergy domestically while sticking to the food self-sufficiency ratio redlines would lower China's daily per capita calorie intake by 8% and increase domestic food prices by 23% by 2060. Removing China's food self-sufficiency ratio restrictions could halve the domestic food dilemma but risks transferring environmental burdens to other countries, whereas halving food loss and waste, shifting to healthier diets and narrowing crop yield gaps could effectively mitigate these external effects. Our results show that simultaneously achieving carbon neutrality, food security and global sustainability requires a careful combination of these measures.``

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Work in Progress 🚀

• “Down the Drain? The Impact of Wastewater Treatment Plants on Residential Property Values”

   (Draft is available upon request)

joint with Tingwei Gao and Yana Jin

Conference Presentation: AERE 2025 Summer Conference, 2nd XMU-UM Joint Workshop on Environmental and Behavioral/Experimental Economics, 30th Annual Conference of EAERE

• “An Integrated Assessment of Provincial Economic Damages from Climate Change in China”

   (Draft available upon request)

joint with Hantang Peng, Tianpeng Wang, Da Zhang and Xiliang Zhang

Conference Presentation: 27th GTAP, 3rd CAERE

• “From Flameout to Reignition: How Policy Retractions Breed Hesitation and Hinder Revival”

former circulated with the title of Forest Autonomy and Forest Carbon Sink Potential: Evidence from Northeast China.

   (Draft available upon request)

joint with Tingyu Cui and Yushuai Zhang

Conference Presentation: 3rd CAERE, 4th CAERE, 9th CCER SI

• “Research on Transnational Mobility of Researchers based on Multi-Agent Modeling: A case study of Artificial Intelligence”

   joint with Wenjie Chen and Chao Min

• “Trade Ban and Environmental Pollution: A Policy Evaluation on Trade Ban of Foreign Garbage”

   (My Course Thesis of Public Policy Evaluation in PKU, Mar. 2022 - Jul. 2022)

Manuscript (in Chinese)

Preliminary Slides (in Chinese)

joint with Wenhui Yang